Modeling network traffic on a global network-centric system with artificial neural networks

This dissertation proposes a new methodology for modeling and predicting network traffic. It features an adaptive architecture based on artificial neural networks and is especially suited for large-scale, global, network-centric systems. Accurate characterization and prediction of network traffic is essential for network resource sizing and real-time network traffic management. As networks continue to increase in size and complexity, the task has become increasingly difficult and current methodology is not sufficiently adaptable or scaleable. Current methods model network traffic with express mathematical equations which are not easily maintained or adjusted. The accuracy of these models is based on detailed characterization of the traffic stream which is measured at points along the network where the data is often subject to constant variation and rapid evolution. The main contribution of this dissertation is development of a methodology that allows utilization of artificial neural networks with increased capability for adaptation and scalability. Application on an operating global, broadband network, the Connexion by Boeingʼ network, was evaluated to establish feasibility. A simulation model was constructed and testing was conducted with operational scenarios to demonstrate applicability on the case study network and to evaluate improvements in accuracy over existing methods --Abstract, page iii

Sex and Geographic Differences in Health of the Early Inhabitants of the Mariana Islands

The early inhabitants of the Mariana Islands encountered numerous challenges that likely affected their health, including island size, vulnerability to natural disasters, availability of resources, and shifts in climate. Other factors that could have led to differences in health include biological sex, social status, diet, and genetic factors (e.g., host resistance). This article examines the effects of environment and biological sex on the health of the earliest inhabitants of the Mariana Islands through an analysis of indicators of health recorded in skeletons from Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan. The indicators of health investigated include cribra orbitalia (CO), linear enamel hypoplasia (LEH), stature, trauma, infection, and dental disease (antemortem tooth loss [AMTL], dental caries, alveolar defect, dental calculus, and attrition). Betel staining of teeth is also examined. To determine if there are differences attributable to sex, male and female data are compared for each island separately and then for all the islands combined. To examine differences between islands, separate comparisons of these indicators are made for males and females. Examining islands separately, no significant sex differences were observed for CO, spondylolysis, fractures, treponemal infection, AMTL, or dental calculus. Significant sex differences were observed for LEH, betel-stained teeth, and the other dental pathologies. With few exceptions, sex differences in the observed indicators were consistent across islands. Observing male and female health across the islands revealed no significant differences for stature, trauma or infections. For the remaining indicators, significant differences were observed. Similarities in health between Guam and Rota in the south and Tinian and Saipan located farther north suggest that geography, environmental constraints, and social and cultural networking were important variables affecting the health and lives of the early inhabitants of the Mariana Islands

The Berkeley Sample of Stripped-Envelope Supernovae

We present the complete sample of stripped-envelope supernova (SN) spectra observed by the Lick Observatory Supernova Search (LOSS) collaboration over the last three decades: 888 spectra of 302 SNe, 652 published here for the first time, with 384 spectra (of 92 SNe) having photometrically-determined phases. After correcting for redshift and Milky Way dust reddening and reevaluating the spectroscopic classifications for each SN, we construct mean spectra of the three major spectral subtypes (Types IIb, Ib, and Ic) binned by phase. We compare measures of line strengths and widths made from this sample to the results of previous efforts, confirming that O I {\lambda}7774 absorption is stronger and found at higher velocity in Type Ic SNe than in Types Ib or IIb SNe in the first 30 days after peak brightness, though the widths of nebular emission lines are consistent across subtypes. We also highlight newly available observations for a few rare subpopulations of interest.Comment: 13 pages; 14 figures; 3 tables. Accepted for publication in MNRA

PROPEL: implementation of an evidence based pelvic floor muscle training intervention for women with pelvic organ prolapse: a realist evaluation and outcomes study protocol

Abstract Background Pelvic Organ Prolapse (POP) is estimated to affect 41%–50% of women aged over 40. Findings from the multi-centre randomised controlled “Pelvic Organ Prolapse PhysiotherapY” (POPPY) trial showed that individualised pelvic floor muscle training (PFMT) was effective in reducing symptoms of prolapse, improved quality of life and showed clear potential to be cost-effective. However, provision of PFMT for prolapse continues to vary across the UK, with limited numbers of women’s health physiotherapists specialising in its delivery. Implementation of this robust evidence from the POPPY trial will require attention to different models of delivery (e.g. staff skill mix) to fit with differing care environments. Methods A Realist Evaluation (RE) of implementation and outcomes of PFMT delivery in contrasting NHS settings will be conducted using multiple case study sites. Involving substantial local stakeholder engagement will permit a detailed exploration of how local sites make decisions on how to deliver PFMT and how these lead to service change. The RE will track how implementation is working; identify what influences outcomes; and, guided by the RE-AIM framework, will collect robust outcomes data. This will require mixed methods data collection and analysis. Qualitative data will be collected at four time-points across each site to understand local contexts and decisions regarding options for intervention delivery and to monitor implementation, uptake, adherence and outcomes. Patient outcome data will be collected at baseline, six months and one year follow-up for 120 women. Primary outcome will be the Pelvic Organ Prolapse Symptom Score (POP-SS). An economic evaluation will assess the costs and benefits associated with different delivery models taking account of further health care resource use by the women. Cost data will be combined with the primary outcome in a cost effectiveness analysis, and the EQ-5D-5L data in a cost utility analysis for each of the different models of delivery. Discussion Study of the implementation of varying models of service delivery of PFMT across contrasting sites combined with outcomes data and a cost effectiveness analysis will provide insight into the implementation and value of different models of PFMT service delivery and the cost benefits to the NHS in the longer term

Evaluation of the limitations and methods to improve rapid phage-based detection of viable Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in the blood of experimentally infected cattle

Background Disseminated infection and bacteraemia is an underreported and under-researched aspect of Johne’s disease. This is mainly due to the time it takes for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) to grow and lack of sensitivity of culture. Viable MAP cells can be detected in the blood of cattle suffering from Johne’s disease within 48 h using peptide-mediated magnetic separation (PMMS) followed by bacteriophage amplification. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the first detection of MAP in the blood of experimentally exposed cattle using the PMMS-bacteriophage assay and to compare these results with the immune response of the animal based on serum ELISA and shedding of MAP by faecal culture. Results Using the PMMS-phage assay, seven out of the 19 (37 %) MAP-exposed animals that were tested were positive for viable MAP cells although very low numbers of MAP were detected. Two of these animals were positive by faecal culture and one was positive by serum ELISA. There was no correlation between PMMS-phage assay results and the faecal and serum ELISA results. None of the control animals (10) were positive for MAP using any of the four detection methods. Investigations carried out into the efficiency of the assay; found that the PMMS step was the limiting factor reducing the sensitivity of the phage assay. A modified method using the phage assay directly on isolated peripheral blood mononuclear cells (without PMMS) was found to be superior to the PMMS isolation step. Conclusions This proof of concept study has shown that viable MAP cells are present in the blood of MAP-exposed cattle prior to the onset of clinical signs. Although only one time point was tested, the ability to detect viable MAP in the blood of subclinically infected animals by the rapid phage-based method has the potential to increase the understanding of the pathogenesis of Johne’s disease progression by warranting further research on the presence of MAP in blood

Spatio-temporal Models of Lymphangiogenesis in Wound Healing

Several studies suggest that one possible cause of impaired wound healing is failed or insufficient lymphangiogenesis, that is the formation of new lymphatic capillaries. Although many mathematical models have been developed to describe the formation of blood capillaries (angiogenesis), very few have been proposed for the regeneration of the lymphatic network. Lymphangiogenesis is a markedly different process from angiogenesis, occurring at different times and in response to different chemical stimuli. Two main hypotheses have been proposed: 1) lymphatic capillaries sprout from existing interrupted ones at the edge of the wound in analogy to the blood angiogenesis case; 2) lymphatic endothelial cells first pool in the wound region following the lymph flow and then, once sufficiently populated, start to form a network. Here we present two PDE models describing lymphangiogenesis according to these two different hypotheses. Further, we include the effect of advection due to interstitial flow and lymph flow coming from open capillaries. The variables represent different cell densities and growth factor concentrations, and where possible the parameters are estimated from biological data. The models are then solved numerically and the results are compared with the available biological literature.Comment: 29 pages, 9 Figures, 6 Tables (39 figure files in total

Delivering clinical studies of exercise in the COVID-19 pandemic: challenges and adaptations using a feasibility trial of isometric exercise to treat hypertension as an exemplar

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted on the delivery of clinical trials in the UK, posing complicated organisational challenges and requiring adaptations, especially to exercise intervention studies based in the community. We aim to identify the challenges of public involvement, recruitment, consent, follow-up, intervention and the healthcare professional delivery aspects of a feasibility study of exercise in hypertensive primary care patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. While these challenges elicited many reactive changes which were specific to, and only relevant in the context of ‘lockdown’ requirements, some of the protocol developments that came about during this unprecedented period have great potential to inform more permanent practices for carrying out this type of research. To this end, we detail the necessary adaptations to many elements of the feasibility study and critically reflect on our approach to redesigning and amending this ongoing project in order to maintain its viability to date. Some of the more major protocol adaptations, such as moving the study to remote means wherever possible, had further unforeseen and undesirable outcomes (eg, additional appointments) with regards to extra resources required to deliver the study. However, other changes improved the efficiency of the study, such as the remote informed consent and the direct advertising with prescreening survey. The adaptations to the study have clear links to the UK Plan for the future of research delivery. It is intended that this specific documentation and critical evaluation will help those planning or delivering similar studies to do so in a more resource efficient and effective way. In conclusion, it is essential to reflect and respond with protocol changes in the current climate in order to deliver clinical research successfully, as in the case of this particular study

A non-spherical core in the explosion of supernova SN 2004dj

An important and perhaps critical clue to the mechanism driving the explosion of massive stars as supernovae is provided by the accumulating evidence for asymmetry in the explosion. Indirect evidence comes from high pulsar velocities, associations of supernovae with long-soft gamma-ray bursts, and asymmetries in late-time emission-line profiles. Spectropolarimetry provides a direct probe of young supernova geometry, with higher polarization generally indicating a greater departure from spherical symmetry. Large polarizations have been measured for 'stripped-envelope' (that is, type Ic) supernovae, which confirms their non-spherical morphology; but the explosions of massive stars with intact hydrogen envelopes (type II-P supernovae) have shown only weak polarizations at the early times observed. Here we report multi-epoch spectropolarimetry of a classic type II-P supernova that reveals the abrupt appearance of significant polarization when the inner core is first exposed in the thinning ejecta (~90 days after explosion). We infer a departure from spherical symmetry of at least 30 per cent for the inner ejecta. Combined with earlier results, this suggests that a strongly non-spherical explosion may be a generic feature of core-collapse supernovae of all types, where the asphericity in type II-P supernovae is cloaked at early times by the massive, opaque, hydrogen envelope.Comment: Accepted for publication by Nature (results embargoed until 23 March 2006); 14 pages, 2 figure